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    Analysis of the 2005-2006 World Cup Series by Emmanuel Durand
  By Lefebvre Guillaume
Emmanuel Durand (FRA), 1996 World silver medalist and 1997 World Cup Final winner 
September 18, 2006: Former World #1 and 1997 World Cup Final winner Emmanuel Durand (FRA) analyzed the recent tendencies observed in the 2005-2006 World Cup Series. Durand draws instructive conclusions from his detailed statistical analysis of the World Cups. The World Cup Final will take place in Birmingham, Great Britain, on November 25, 2006.

 

Now that the 2005-2005 World Cup series is over, I once again had fun analyzing these data compiled during this series.  You can find the detailed data in the spreasheet attached below this analysis.

Men’s Individual Trampoline

First, I think that this season, and more specifically 2006, confirmed the rise of a new champion: Yasuhiro Ueyama (JPN).  His statistics are all very impressive: 8 World Cups.  8 individual finals.  5 gold medals including four in a row, as well as a silver medal.  5 times more than 70.00 points in the preliminaries.  And 6 times more than 40.00 points for his routines performed in the final.  He is by far the leader of this 2005-2006 World Cup series thanks to his exceptional consistency.  Kudos!

After this introductory observation, let’s look at more general statistics… 



Athletes

Countries

Average Difficulty

Score required for the final

2005 Average

53

19

15.4

68.1

2006 Average

57

18

15.3

68.0


All this data is fairly consistent from one year to the other.  As a comparison, there were 85 athletes competing at the last World Championships, coming from 31 countries.  The average difficulty was 15.20 pts, and a score of 68.40 pts was necessary to enter the final.  With 33% less individual entries and only 60% of the countries from the World Championships, you end up more or less with the same average difficulty and the same score necessary to make the final.  This shows the quality of the World Cup series and the value of a gold medal at each of these World Cups.

If you look at all the individual finalists of this series, the performances by Japan, Germany and China have to be saluted as these countries were able to qualify four different athletes each at least once into the final of one of the World Cups of the 2005-2006 series.  These countries are followed by Russia and the Ukraine with three different athletes.  The main country missing from this list is France (unfortunately, no individual finalist throughout this whole 2005-2006 World Cup series!).

Finally, here is a quick study that could feed a future debate…When the FIG announced that the list of the finalists for the World Cup Final would be based on the world rankings, I immediately expressed my disagreement.  If you want a competition to be based on the world rankings, it should be called “World Masters,” not “World Cup Final.”  In my opinion, the World Cup Final is the event concluding two years of successive World Cups.  Accordingly, I put together rankings solely using the FIG points granted at the 8 World Cups of the 2005-2006 World Cup series.  I then compared these rankings to the actual world rankings.

The results are very conclusive: The #2 (Adam Goetz, GER), #5 (Flavio Cannone, ITA) and #8 (Jason Burnett, CAN) of these World Cup series rankings are at the 9th, 10th and 18th spots of the world rankings.  The 3rd (Yuri Nikitin, UKR), 5th (David Martin, FRA) and 8th (Tetsuya Sotomura, JPN) of the world rankings are respectively #13, not ranked, and #11 in the World Cup series rankings.  Arguably, Yuri Nikitin is finally coming back to the front stage with his recent silver medal at the Salzgitter World Cup.  Arguably, David Martin finished 3rd at the last European Championships, and Tetsuya Sotomura seems to be recovering from his lost skills problem that hampered his difficulty throughout 2006.  What is sure is that thanks to the world rankings, the FIG will line up in Birmingham the top 6 of the 2005 World Championships, two Olympic medalists (including the defending Olympic Champion) plus two other finalists from the Athens Olympics.  What is a little of a pity is that those who competed in the 2005-2006 World Cup series, and who, in my opinion, would really deserve to compete at the World Cup Final, will nevertheless have to stay home.

Women’s Individual Trampoline

Years are passing by but are still similar for Irina Karavaeva (RUS)!  She finished, once again, as the leader of this World Cup series, also with 4 victories in a row.  It should be noted that Irina, Karen Cockburn (CAN) and Natalia Chernova (RUS) are the athletes who competed in the greatest number of finals: 6 each.

Let’s look at the statistics…

  

 

 

Athletes

Countries

Average Difficulty

Score required for the final

2005 Average

40

14

13.1

64.4

2006 Average

36

16

13.2

64.4


Once again, the numbers are fairly stable from one year to the other.  As a comparison, there were 60 athletes competing at the last World Championships, coming from 23 countries.  The average difficulty was 13.10 pts, and 65.80 pts were necessary to enter the final.  With 40% less competitors, and only 60% of the number of countries, you end up with the same average difficulty, but with a more than 1 point difference for the score required to enter the final.  Did the judges hold it back in the World Cup series?  The answer will be provided in Quebec City!

If you look at all the individual finalists in this World Cup series, the outstanding performance accomplished by China has to be saluted: the Chinese had 4 different athletes making it at least once to the final of a World Cup.  I think that it will be very difficult to take the World Champion title away from this team.  They are followed by 7 countries that were able to place 2 different athletes at least once in a final (Russia, Canada, Great Britain, the Ukraine, Germany, Belarus, and the U.S.).  This shows the density of the women’s world elite.

If you compare the World Cup series rankings and the FIG world rankings, you will notice that only the #8 (Zhong Xingping, CHN) of the World Cup series rankings is not within the top 8 (14th) of the world rankings.  It is obvious that the impact is much less significant than in the men’s.  However, once again, the 8th (Heather Ross-McManus, CAN) and the 9th   (Andrea Lenders, NED) in the world rankings do not appear at all in the World Cup series rankings…

Quick Conclusion

I find it a little too bad…that there was a weak turnout, twice, at the Krasnodar World Cups in Russia in 2005 and 2006.

I feel hope…as more and more 9.00+ pt marks are obtained for the compulsory routines.  It seems to me that the marks are going up, and it is a good thing!

AcrobaticSports.com would like to thank Emmanuel Durand for writing this detailed analysis of the World Cup Series and compiling the supporting data that you can find in the excel spreadsheet attached at the bottom of this article. 

The 8th World Cup Final will take place in Birmingham, Great Britain, on November 25, 2006. 


   
  Detailed Statistical Analysis of the 2005-2006 World Cup Series
AcrobaticSports.com Top 10 Men Ranking for 2005
Irina Karavaeva and Yasuhiro Ueyama triumph at the Ghent World Cup
New Gold Medals for Irina Karavaeva and Yasuhiro Ueyama in Krasnodar - Trampoline Final report
Focus on the Birmingham World Cup Final
Savognin - World Cup Finals
2006 Salzgitter World Cup - Finals
Ueyama tops the new World Rankings
List of athletes qualified for the Birmingham World Cup Final
 
 
 
 
 

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